Update on Russian MiG35 Offer

Post-Eastern Economic Forum, Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah had announced that Russia had shared their intention to take back not just 10 ageing MiG29 (finally, they're admitting that there's only 10 salvageable air-frame out of 16 surviving MiG29), but also 18 'ageing' SU30MKM.  Wait what?

MiG29 - obsolete and ageing

I can understand if the MiG29 is ageing, but for SU30MKM to be ageing, well that is a bit of a stretch as the first SU30MKM arrived in Malaysia in 2007 and the last unit reached our shores in August 2009.  Therefore, to say that the platform is ageing is slightly exaggerating the situation.  It is true that our SU30 does have some operational issue, but ageing it is not (yet).

SU30MKM - ageing?

Still, there is not enough details to comfort me that making the purchase is the right move.  Let me address this shortly.  Worst still, too many of the details I've found so far are not in favour of MiG35.

1 - MiG35 is an Unproven Platform

As I had mentioned in my prior article, I can only find data confirming that there are only 8 units of MiG35 ever built, and 6 of these were built as proof of concept jets.  Never mind all those nice stats on how good is MiG35.  These are meaningless if not enough MiG35 have flown.  Lack of operational units will hide design flaws that we can't see right now.

MiG35 - Unproven platform

2 - Maintenance Cost for MiG35 could kill RMAF

As there are too few MiG35 operational units globally, this indirectly means spare part cost will shoot to the roof.  There is no economic of scales to produce the cheaper parts for MiG35 yet.  Assuming that RMAF jumps onto the Fulcrum F bandwagon and all the contracts is fulfilled, there will only be 90 MiG35 globally (6 Russian Air Force + 48 Egyptian Air Force and + 36 RMAF).  This will push the cost to produce each spare part astronomically high as these need to be sourced directly from Russia.  And yes, Russian Air Force had only procured 6 MiG35 to be fully delivered by 2023. 

As compared with SU30MKM, we can source the parts either from Russia, China or India, with China and India producing comparable parts at a cheaper price, of which drive down the cost.  

3 - Replacing SU30MKM with MiG35 does not make sense

In many of my past articles, I called for rationalisation of RMAF combat asset.  One of the ideas that I toyed around was for RMAF to use only 1 type of combat aircraft.  In this concept that I suggested (I can't remember where I had shared this idea, whether it was in my blog, Facebook page, comments or even WhatsApp or verbal comment), was to procure MRCA-rated tranche III Eurofighter Typhoon as Tier 1 combat asset supported by tranche I or II Eurofighter Typhoon.  If this was not doable, the next best choice would be using SU30MKM as Tier I combat assets supported by FA18C/D (assuming that we had gotten the Kuwaiti Air Force jets). 

Cope Taufan photo from RMAF/USAF.  Note that MiG29 appears smaller than SU30MKM despite being nearer. MiG29 differs little from MiG35, thus giving idea why replacing SU30MKM with a smaller MiG35 might not be a good idea.

However, replacing SU30MKM with MiG35 is not what I would say as favourable consolidation of asset.  

SU30MKM vs MiG35
Data from multiple sources
Note, data on MiG35 combat range may not be accurate

MiG35, like MiG29 falls into light combat aircraft category, whereas SU30 is a medium-weight combat aircraft.  SU30 carries far more combat ordnance as compared with MiG35 and this is an important factor.  The difference is even more obvious when you place both planes side-by-side.  

4 - Russian Air Force Procurement 

As mentioned above, Russian Air Force itself has only ordered 6 units of MiG35.  As a comparison with SU57, Russian Air Force had ordered 76 units of SU57, while for SU35, 98 units were ordered with excess of 80 units delivered and had since full operational capability.  If MiG35 is really that capable, Russian Air Force would have procured more MiG35 instead of just 6 units only.  This offer seems more like getting other air forces to test out MiG35 capabilities for Russia.  It is also important to note that, with Pakistani JF17 and Chinese J11 in the market, both of these compete within the same market that was once dominated by Mikoyan-Gurevich planes.

5 - SU30MKM Capabilities

RMAF SU30MKM is rumoured to have been upgraded with certain capabilities which makes it far more capable than when it first rolled out from Russian soil in 2007.  RMAF was said to have made certain modification that Russia is said to be very interested in.  If SU30MKM is to be traded in for MiG35, this move would very likely resulted in at least 2 countries may sanction RMAF and MAF from procuring any assets from them in the future.

6 - RMAF CAP55 

RMAF came up with their CAP55 plan last year.  CAP55 is RMAF long-term plan similar in the mould of Navy's 15-to-5.  And according to several sources, they have already told the Government their requirement and are not appreciative of any attempts to change what they have requested.  

RMAF CAP55

Premature

An update on the recent update on the Russian offer.  Looks like it was premature to call it as MiG29 replacement programme, if we go by with the Russian offer.  Thus, I'm going to call this as the Russian MiG35 offer.  And based on what I've pointed out above, this Russian offer may not be of our interest.  And if we fail to appreciate this properly and fail to handle this properly, RMAF will one day fly with these birds.

Source internet