Search This Blog

Friday, June 3, 2016

Open Sky 'Policy'

1st of June was RMAF anniversary. What was supposed to be a happy occasion became solemn as it was purported that RMAF MiG29N, or the MiGgies as I call them would fly for the one last time, and this time. And without any suitable replacement had been identified.

MiG29N in the centre

The fear was slightly assuaged when RMAF top brass confirmed that the MiGgies will still be flying until further notice. It would be taken off the queue one by one.

While the fear has been assuaged, the urgency still remains.

My brothers in the Malaysia Military Power, or MMP went for offensive.

They came up with a worst case scenario article with our Panda becoming white elephant to us.

There were those who argued that the scenario is too far-fetched. But it is not. In fact, their scenario is the best case scenario of the worst case scenarios possible.

The push and shove in South China Sea plus the serious weakening of US military power has made China becoming more daring.
While they still practise white hull navy with Malaysia, their grey hulls are waiting outside our maritime borders.

This is worst case scenario.
We have no or insufficient capabilities to prevent an all-out disaster.

What we have are only 18 SU30MKM based at Gong Kedak and Kuantan, 8 FA18 Hornets at Butterworth and possibly 12 MiG29N from Kuantan.

How about Hawks? They will defend East Malaysia. But East Malaysia is the nearest to Fiery Reef and the Hawks are sitting ducks to China's J-11, the Chinese version of SU27/30 variant.

At any point of time, no single unit can muster 100% strength. I'll not share what is our operational capabilities. But I'll put it at 60% to 70%. Which means:

10 SU30MKM
4 FA18 Hornets
6 MiG29N

This can barely defend half of the Peninsular.

And don't forget, these bombers will be having J-11 as escorts. Which means some of these 20 planes we send out to defend us will never make it home.

Our anti-air capabilities are only VSHORADS type which can cover only 5km radius. We don't even have medium range SAM.

If we were to buy the equipment today, we need at least 2 years to muster, depending the assembly line. Worst case scenario, 4 years to receive all new 18 units MRCA. Or if you're like the shit Thailand is in now, you might end up with no planes. (FYI, Thailand had to cancel their purchase of T84 Oplot MBT from Ukraine as all production line in Ukraine has to be diverted to support their war effort against pro-Russia separatist).

How about training? We need another 2 years probably for the men to be proficient with their equipment. Like what I had said once before, defending peace is not like playing Command and Conquer, where the units can be purchased in minutes and are capable to fight immediately out of the assembly line.
Real life is not like Command & Conquer computer games.

Any assistance from FPDA will be from Aussie and Singapore. If they are willing to do so. UK is probably stuck with her global commitment in the midst of shrinking their military. They're expected to be a shadow force in a few years if all the budget cuts are realised. Singapore might help. But may be not. Self-preservation I'd important. And maybe they will be forced to defend Singapore only. New Zealand don't even have any air combat wing.


How long does it need to escalate a conflict? All it takes is a panicky soldier to fire the first shot and that takes less than a second.
So if you think you can sleep well with that, be my guest and go ahead.

No comments:

Post a Comment