There is some development in RMAF search for the long stalled MiG29N replacement programme. Last week, NST stringer Adrian David quoted Dr. Victor Kladov who is the special aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Russian President will formally propose to sell to Malaysia 36 units of MiG35 Fulcrum-F MRCA and yet to be mentioned number of YAK130 light combat jets. In return, Malaysia is expected to sell back 18 units of the ageing MiG29N (in reality, only 16 units left as 2 had crashed). Vladimir Putin is expected to present his proposal to Malaysian Prime Minister Tun Mahathir when they meet up in Vladivostok for Eastern Economic Forum which will be held from 4 September to 6 September this year.
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| Vladimir Putin Photo Source: Kremlin.ru via Wikipedia |
This announcement had led to excitement, especially among defence watchers who had been calling for Malaysian government to replace the ageing interceptor. With the ageing Russian-made interceptors no longer operationally viable, RMAF is left with 8 American-made FA18D Hornets and 18 Russian-made SU30MKM with a complement of British-made BAe Hawk 208e to protect Malaysian airspace all the way from Perlis to Sabah.
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| RMAF MiG29N |
It is worth to note that RMAF had previously looked into several other type of aircraft to replace the ageing interceptor, namely British BAe-made Eurofighter Typhoon, French D'Assault Aviation Rafale, Swedish JAS Gripen, Russian SU30MKX (X being undetermined variant, but most likely M variant) and US-made Super Hornet. There was even rumours of possibility of RMAF procuring 39 units of ex-Kuwaiti Air Force Hornets (C and D) instead during the previous administration, but all the above-mentioned plans fell through.
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| MiG35D Photo Credit to Carlos Menendez San Juan via Wikipedia |
Thus it was a pleasant surprise to hear that Russia is still planning to approach Malaysia to meet RMAF needs despite their initial offering of SU30 had fell through at the very early stage circa 2004.
The special aide had also intimate that the Russian Federation would also be willing to accept flexible payment term, which means payment using palm oil will likely be accepted.
So, would this deal be a bargain for Malaysia? To be frank, it is still too early to be determined. With 36 units being offered, this goes a long way to meet RMAF's long-term plan of having 5 to 6 combat operational combat squadron. The current number of assets is insufficient for RMAF to be able to be a viable combat air force.
Furthermore, there is no mention of the pricing of the jets going to be offered to RMAF. Using Egyptian Air Force contract as a benchmark, a unit of MiG35 costs about USD40 million each. On the other hand, I expect that we may be given a two or three-tier pricing, meaning if we agree to purchase the jets, the price might be lowered further if we agree to buy YAK130 and Mi17. Therefore, the price offered to Malaysia should be in the range between USD42 to USD45 million, give or take. Note that the deal will be very tempting considering that we are also in midst of looking for S61A4 Nuri and BAe 108e replacements.
Does this mean we should throw caution to the wind and jump right into the deal?
It is still too early. In depth study is needed if this direction is to be taken. Let's have a look. For the purpose of this article, we will look from pro's and con's of making this move.
Pro's
First, the MiG35 is a formidable aircraft. An evolution from the venerable MiG29, MiG35 has the best of MiG29. As it is an evolution from MiG29, RMAF should have the relevant know-how in operating the plane. Similarly, ATSC should be able to handle the maintenance of the aircraft.
While MiG35 is an upgrade from MiG29, it is altogether a different beast. It is much superior in terms of technology and capability. This can be inferred from the types of weaponry suite that it can carry. In a way, the best comparison to MiG29 - MiG35 is Hornet - Super Hornet relationship.
Mikoyan-Gurevich apparently had also learnt the painful lessons from MiG29. A key complaint for MiG29 is that the parts of different air-frame are not interchangeable. This was due to then Mikoyan-Gurevich manufacturing method. Thus, Mikoyan-Gurevich apparently had undergone change in manufacturing philosophy and ensured that MiG35 components are manufactured to same standards, with focus on commonality. If this is accurate, this will reduce asset spare-parts issue as faced previously with MiG29.
With 36 units on the table, this gives RMAF better option in rotating aircraft. Thus, reduce the wear-and-tear for each aircraft.
Compared to MiG29, MiG35 has anti-ship and anti-ground capability. Thus, if MiG35 is procured for RMAF use, this means a huge jump in RMAF anti-ship capability.
Similarly, MiG35 is also given TVC or thrust-vector control capability. Thus, MiG35 will have maneuverability that is not too far behind our SU30MKM.
Con's
MiG35 is not without detractors.
As MiG35 is an evolution from MiG29, there are bound to be similar weaknesses which are inherited from MiG29. One of the key concerns with MiG35 would be its service life. When RMAF first procured MiG29 in the 90's, one of the key concerns was the aircraft's shorter expected lifespan. The Russian jet had shorter lifespan due to Russian operational philosophy which saw them preferring to replace a malfunctioning MiG with another rather than fixing it. True to the concerns back then, RMAF MiG29 had a much shorter lifespan compared to the 8 units of US-made FA18D Hornets, all which are still operational as at today even though being procured at same time.
As of today, there are only 8 MiG35 in the whole world, 6 of these for test-flight. Thus, it would be a very big risk to procure something that no one else had procured. A worst possible scenario is that we may be stuck with 36 flying white elephant, or worse still, 36 non-flyable aircraft.
Another concern that I have would be that if RMAF decides to take Russian offer, we may see our air force operational doctrine to evolve to mirror Russian operational doctrine. It might be a concern as this would mean hidden cost in this procurement as RMAF will need to shift from western-centric operational doctrine that we have today to Russian-centric philosophy.
This will involve not only RMAF structurally but also include the logistics and services supporting RMAF.
And alas, is this what RMAF actually want? Is the MiG35 something that RMAF willing to take up considering their rather bad experience with the Russian manufacturer?
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| MiG29 vs MiG35 Note: data on MiG35 combat range may not be accurate |
Other Observations
In preparing this article, I did several searches on MiG35 and found something odd. Using MiG35 Egyptian deal as search parameter, I found that during the last 6 months preceding to NST's article on the Russian offer, an article on Egyptian MiG35 purchase had been republished several times across several different medium, each quoting the same story all over again. This intrigued me as the original article was written by Dario Leone of Aviation Geek in 2017.
Was this something done purposely to hike up interest on the Russian jet? At this juncture, it is difficult to say. But in defence world, there is no such thing as coincidence.
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| Odd case of having 'old' articles being rehashed as if just happened. |
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Note also that Dr. Viktor Kladov, is also on the Board of Directors of Rostvertol PAO, which is a helicopter manufacturer which produces Mi-xx series helicopters. He is also former Head of International Cooperation for Rostec, which is the coordinator for Russian defence manufacturers.
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| Dr Viktor Kladov Photo Source - DefenceNews |
Conclusion
My first deep interest in Malaysian military came from the early days of MiG29N operations with RMAF. As much as I love the Fulcrum personally, I can't let the Fulcrum nostalgia to mislead myself to agree with this procurement as this move might not be the best move for our country. This needs deeper study, which should not be a problem for this government as it has a habit of announcing everything to be still in study. After all, we still have a Penang tunnel study that has yet to see the light of day.
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